Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.572631 0.663877 0.761885 0.874625 1.000361 1.135908 1.292703
2025-03-16 0.419134 0.534170 0.666877 0.829956 1.023553 1.244606 1.514575
2025-03-23 0.331285 0.462458 0.624327 0.835617 1.100723 1.418799 1.825396
2025-03-30 0.241395 0.372325 0.546018 0.787433 1.107759 1.511300 2.050302
2025-04-06 0.180778 0.309036 0.492070 0.762559 1.141025 1.639825 2.333099
2025-04-13 0.132739 0.253400 0.439296 0.731661 1.162732 1.756118 2.612425
2025-04-20 0.103325 0.219764 0.412779 0.734347 1.231390 1.942317 3.002140
2025-04-27 0.078209 0.186893 0.381461 0.725214 1.282026 2.108675 3.379905
2025-05-04 0.060974 0.163675 0.361817 0.731797 1.357469 2.318079 3.836631
2025-05-11 0.046842 0.142217 0.340972 0.733202 1.424977 2.521822 4.301518
2025-05-18 0.032790 0.115448 0.303898 0.699734 1.430920 2.631265 4.633680
2025-05-25 0.021919 0.091301 0.265833 0.657391 1.415893 2.705472 4.916824
2025-06-01 0.015681 0.077130 0.246846 0.651304 1.468801 2.902051 5.419027
2025-06-08 0.010665 0.063434 0.224888 0.635033 1.501164 3.067708 5.885125
2025-06-15 0.008152 0.057106 0.220084 0.655759 1.607818 3.371468 6.601322
2025-06-22 0.005138 0.045566 0.196721 0.629108 1.616881 3.503487 7.038465
2025-06-29 0.003362 0.037801 0.181541 0.618977 1.658651 3.698343 7.596707
2025-07-06 0.002063 0.030595 0.164950 0.601483 1.682306 3.861298 8.109749
2025-07-13 0.001418 0.026819 0.158910 0.611030 1.766665 4.145750 8.855192
2025-07-20 0.000895 0.022701 0.149535 0.609151 1.824807 4.383606 9.530178
2025-07-27 0.000594 0.019992 0.144758 0.619926 1.914016 4.689468 10.346882
2025-08-03 0.000371 0.017315 0.138669 0.625375 1.991096 4.976215 11.143109
2025-08-10 0.000174 0.013457 0.123985 0.599312 1.986854 5.095606 11.630255